Baltimore Orioles

48% win

pred 4.6

Kyle Bradish

FINAL

Kansas City Royals

52% win

pred 4.6

Seth Lugo

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	7	6
KC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		5	14

2026-04-20 · 7:40 PM ET Kauffman Stadium 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Leody Taveras	CF	20.0	$3.1k	6.5
Nick Loftin	LF	16.0	$2.5k	6.4
Jac Caglianone	RF	16.0	$3.0k	5.3
Samuel Basallo	C	16.0	$3.6k	4.4
Isaac Collins	LF	8.0	$2.3k	3.5
Salvador Perez	C	11.0	$3.4k	3.2
Seth Lugo	SP	26.8	$9.6k	2.8
Dylan Beavers	RF	7.0	$3.0k	2.3
Anthony Nunez	RP	9.3	$4.0k	2.3
Matt Strahm	RP	8.3	$4.0k	2.1
Taylor Ward	LF	9.0	$4.5k	2.0
Weston Wilson	LF	4.0	$2.0k	2.0
Maikel Garcia	3B	9.0	$4.8k	1.9
Kyle Bradish	SP	16.2	$8.6k	1.9
Lane Thomas	CF	4.0	$2.2k	1.8
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	9.5	$5.9k	1.6
Ryan Helsley	RP	6.3	$4.0k	1.6
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	5.0	$3.4k	1.5
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	6.0	$4.1k	1.5
Carter Jensen	C	5.0	$4.0k	1.3
Rico Garcia	RP	3.7	$4.0k	0.9
Coby Mayo	1B	2.0	$2.3k	0.9
Blaze Alexander	SS	2.0	$2.6k	0.8
Gunnar Henderson	SS	4.0	$6.0k	0.7
Grant Wolfram	RP	2.3	$4.0k	0.6
Yennier Cano	RP	2.3	$4.0k	0.6
Pete Alonso	1B	2.0	$4.9k	0.4
John Schreiber	RP	0.9	$4.0k	0.2

Predictions

Kansas City Royals

ML · Model 52% vs Mkt 48%

-105 · $95 per $100

LOSS

Kansas City Royals +1.5

RL · 1.5 off line

-167 · $60 per $100

LOSS

OVER 9.0

TOTAL · Proj 9.3 vs Line 9.0

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

Kansas City Royals ML + Kansas City Royals +1.5 + OVER 9.0

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+496 · $496 per $100

LOSS

BAL 48% 52% KC

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	79.5%	20.5%
6.5	73.0%	27.0%
7.5	60.7%	39.3%
8.5	52.9%	47.1%
9.5	43.5%	56.5%
10.5	36.6%	63.4%
11.5	28.0%	72.0%
12.5	23.1%	76.9%

Run Line (margin)

Line	KC covers	BAL covers
KC -1.5	36.3%	36.1%
KC -2.5	25.4%	27.5%
KC -3.5	16.9%	18.6%

Team Totals

Line	KC	BAL
O 3.5	61.5%	59.5%
O 4.5	47.1%	46.7%
O 5.5	33.2%	35.3%
O 6.5	22.4%	23.5%

Odds

moneyline KC 52% · -105 · $95 per $100

Book	BAL	Impl%	KC	Impl%
DraftKings	-115	51.1%	-105	48.9%
FanDuel	-116	51.5%	-102	48.5%
BetMGM	-115	51.1%	-105	48.9%
Caesars	-115	51.1%	-105	48.9%

runline Kansas City Royals +1.5 · -167 · $60 per $100

BAL -1.5: BAL 4.6 − 1.5 = 3.1 vs KC 4.6 no bet

KC +1.5: KC 4.6 + 1.5 = 6.1 vs BAL 4.6 BET ✗

Book	BAL		KC
DraftKings	-1.5	+139	+1.5	-168
FanDuel	-1.5	+138	+1.5	-166
BetMGM	-1.5	+135	+1.5	-165
Caesars	-1.5	+143	+1.5	-170

total Over 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 9.0 -105	U 9.0 -115
FanDuel	O 9.0 -106	U 9.0 -114
BetMGM	O 9.0 -105	U 9.0 -115
Caesars	O 9.0 -105	U 9.0 -115

Player Projections actual (projected)

Baltimore Orioles

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Gunnar Henderson	SS	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.1	9.4	—
Taylor Ward	LF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.4	—
Pete Alonso	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.1	—
Dylan Beavers	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.5	1.1	7.8	—
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.2	1.0	7.6	—
Leody Taveras	OF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.5	—
Colton Cowser	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.0	7.1	—
Samuel Basallo	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.8	—
Blaze Alexander	SS	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.7	—
Anthony Nunez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	4.4	—
Albert Suárez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	4.1	—
Tyler Wells	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.9	—
Grant Wolfram	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.6	—
Ryan Helsley	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	3.1	—
Rico Garcia	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	2.9	—
Yennier Cano	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.9	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Kyle Bradish	Starter	5.7	5.7	5.6	2.1	2.9	44%	100%	15.5	—

Kansas City Royals

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	9.9	—
Maikel Garcia	3B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.4	1.0	9.2	—
Carter Jensen	C	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	8.2	—
Salvador Perez	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.0	—
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
Isaac Collins	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	7.2	—
Kyle Isbel	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.0	—
Michael Massey	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.9	—
Jac Caglianone	RF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.0	6.6	—
Daniel Lynch IV	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8	4.4	—
Lucas Erceg	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	4.0	—
Alex Lange	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.5	—
Eli Morgan	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.0	—
John Schreiber	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.5	—
Mitch Spence	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.4	—
Mason Black	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Seth Lugo	Starter	6.0	6.1	5.6	2.2	3.0	51%	100%	17.1	—

Box Score

Baltimore Orioles — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Gunnar Henderson	4	0		0	0	2	3	$6,000 $3,700 $20	9.4	4.0	-5.4
Taylor Ward	4	1	1	0	0	2		$4,500 $3,200 $16	8.4	9.0	+0.6
Dylan Beavers	5	1		0	1		1	$3,000 $2,700 $13	7.8	7.0	-0.8
Pete Alonso	4	0		0	0	1	2	$4,900 $3,000 $17	8.1	2.0	-6.1
Samuel Basallo	3	2		0	2	2		$3,600 $2,700 $11	6.8	16.0	+9.2
Jeremiah Jackson	5	1		0	0			$3,400 $3,100 $15	7.6	5.0	-2.6
Colton Cowser	2	0		0	0		2	$2,900 $2,400 $11	7.1	0.0	-7.1
Leody Taveras	5	1		1	4		1	$3,100 $2,400 $11	7.5	20.0	+12.5
Blaze Alexander	5						3	$2,600 — $10	6.7	2.0	-4.7
Weston Wilson	2					1	2	$2,000 — —	—	4.0
TOTALS	39	6	1	1	7	8	14		69.3	69.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Kyle Bradish	4.2	10	1	7	3	1	27	$8,600 $8,700 $40	15.5	16.2	+0.7
Rico Garcia	1.0		0	1	1	0	4	$4,000 — —	2.9	3.7	+0.8
Grant Wolfram	0.2	1	0	1		0	4	$4,000 — —	3.6	2.3	-1.3
Yennier Cano	1.0		0			0	3	$4,000 — —	1.9	2.3	+0.3
Ryan Helsley	1.0		0	2		0	3	$4,000 — —	3.1	6.3	+3.2
Anthony Nunez	1.2	1	1	1	1	0	7	$4,000 — —	4.4	9.3	+4.9

Kansas City Royals — Hitting

Player	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Maikel Garcia	6	3	0	0		1	$4,800 $3,200 $16	9.2	9.0	-0.2
Bobby Witt Jr.	5	2	0	1	1	1	$5,900 $3,100 $19	9.9	9.5	-0.4
Vinnie Pasquantino	4	0	0	0	2	1	$4,100 $2,600 $15	7.7	6.0	-1.7
Salvador Perez	5	2	0	0		1	$3,400 $2,600 $12	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Carter Jensen	4	1	0	0		1	$4,000 $2,800 $15	8.2	5.0	-3.2
Michael Massey	3	0	0	0		1	$2,400 $2,200 $10	6.9	0.0	-6.9
Jac Caglianone	4	1	1	1	1	1	$3,000 $2,600 $12	6.6	16.0	+9.4
Isaac Collins	5	2	0	0		2	$2,300 $2,600 $9	7.2	8.0	+0.8
Kyle Isbel	4	0	0	0		3	$2,800 $3,000 $10	7.0	0.0	-7.0
Nick Loftin	1	1			1		$2,500 — —	—	16.0
TOTALS	41	12	1	2	5	12		70.7	80.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Seth Lugo	6.1	1	0	7	4	0	24	$9,600 $9,500 $42	17.1	26.8	+9.6
Matt Strahm	1.0		0	3		0	3	$4,000 — —	—	8.3
Lucas Erceg	0.2	1	1		3	0	6	$4,000 — —	4.0	-2.2	-6.1
Daniel Lynch IV	1.1		0	2		0	4	— — —	4.4	7.0	+2.6
John Schreiber	0.2	1	1			0	3	$4,000 — —	2.5	0.9	-1.6
Alex Lange	1.0	3	5	2	1	1	7	$4,000 — —	3.5	-4.2	-7.6

Player Props

Player	Prop	Side	Line	Odds	Proj	Edge	Actual	Result
Seth Lugo	strikeouts	OVER	5.5	-110	7.47	+34.4%	7	HIT
Carter Jensen	total bases	OVER	0.5	-155	1.84	+32.2%	1	HIT
Leody Taveras	runs	OVER	0.5	+145	0.82	+28.8%	—	—
Leody Taveras	total bases	OVER	1.5	+138	2.01	+28.5%	4	HIT
Kyle Bradish	outs recorded	UNDER	16.5	-126	14.40	27.8%	14	HIT
Kyle Bradish	strikeouts	UNDER	4.5	+122	3.47	27.2%	7	MISS
Kyle Isbel	total bases	OVER	0.5	-150	1.46	+25.1%	0	MISS
Jac Caglianone	total bases	OVER	0.5	-150	1.45	+24.9%	4	HIT
Kyle Bradish	walks allowed	OVER	1.5	-165	2.50	+23.6%	3	HIT
Leody Taveras	hits	OVER	0.5	-203	1.37	+22.0%	1	HIT
Taylor Ward	total bases	OVER	1.5	+118	1.92	+22.0%	2	HIT
Carter Jensen	rbis	OVER	0.5	+201	0.54	+20.8%	0	MISS
Gunnar Henderson	total bases	OVER	1.5	-111	2.05	+20.1%	0	MISS
Jeremiah Jackson	total bases	OVER	1.5	+128	1.79	+19.4%	1	MISS
Taylor Ward	runs	OVER	0.5	+104	0.76	+18.2%	—	—
Jac Caglianone	runs	OVER	0.5	+140	0.62	+18.0%	—	—
Kyle Isbel	runs	OVER	0.5	+165	0.55	+17.7%	—	—
Taylor Ward	hits	OVER	0.5	-219	1.27	+17.4%	1	HIT
Jac Caglianone	hits	OVER	0.5	-155	1.04	+16.9%	1	HIT
Kyle Bradish	hits allowed	OVER	4.5	-149	5.50	+15.2%	10	HIT
Jeremiah Jackson	runs	OVER	0.5	+126	0.61	+14.6%	—	—
Bobby Witt Jr.	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-750	0.35	+14.2%	—	—
Isaac Collins	total bases	OVER	0.5	-135	0.99	+13.7%	2	HIT
Leody Taveras	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-285	0.38	+13.7%	4	MISS
Vinnie Pasquantino	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-165	0.87	13.4%	0	HIT
Kyle Isbel	hits	OVER	0.5	-149	0.92	+13.0%	0	MISS
Carter Jensen	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.29	+13.0%	0	HIT
Dylan Beavers	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-273	0.38	+12.8%	1	MISS
Bobby Witt Jr.	runs	OVER	0.5	-107	0.70	+12.4%	—	—
Carter Jensen	runs	OVER	0.5	+136	0.53	+12.2%	—	—
Michael Massey	runs	UNDER	0.5	-248	0.42	+12.0%	—	—
Coby Mayo	hits	UNDER	0.5	+127	0.44	11.6%	—	—
Dylan Beavers	total bases	OVER	0.5	-185	1.14	+11.6%	1	HIT
Bobby Witt Jr.	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	11.4%	0	HIT
Gunnar Henderson	hits	UNDER	1.5	-222	0.90	11.4%	0	HIT
Vinnie Pasquantino	hits	OVER	0.5	-213	0.55	11.4%	0	MISS
Pete Alonso	hits	UNDER	1.5	-254	0.83	11.2%	0	HIT
Michael Massey	total bases	OVER	0.5	-165	1.06	+11.1%	0	MISS
Colton Cowser	runs	UNDER	0.5	-207	0.47	+10.9%	—	—
Samuel Basallo	hits	OVER	0.5	-207	0.55	10.8%	2	HIT
Dylan Beavers	runs	UNDER	0.5	-194	0.49	+10.8%	—	—
Vinnie Pasquantino	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-229	0.41	+10.7%	0	HIT
Kyle Isbel	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.25	+10.0%	—	—
Taylor Ward	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-247	0.36	+10.0%	0	HIT
Maikel Garcia	runs	OVER	0.5	+101	0.61	+9.8%	—	—
Colton Cowser	hits	OVER	0.5	-133	0.78	+9.6%	0	MISS
Gunnar Henderson	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-245	0.35	+9.4%	0	HIT
Jeremiah Jackson	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-267	0.31	+9.3%	0	HIT
Jeremiah Jackson	hits	OVER	0.5	-208	1.01	+9.3%	1	HIT
Maikel Garcia	total bases	OVER	1.5	+117	1.56	+9.1%	3	HIT
Colton Cowser	total bases	OVER	0.5	-140	0.88	+9.0%	0	MISS
Carter Jensen	hits	OVER	0.5	-165	0.88	+9.0%	1	HIT
Vinnie Pasquantino	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.06	8.9%	0	HIT
Kyle Isbel	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-360	0.15	+8.0%	0	HIT
Seth Lugo	walks allowed	UNDER	1.5	+121	1.50	7.7%	4	MISS
Maikel Garcia	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-930	0.05	7.6%	—	—
Maikel Garcia	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-289	0.23	+7.4%	0	HIT
Leody Taveras	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1200	0.00	7.3%	—	—
Colton Cowser	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	7.1%	0	HIT
Colton Cowser	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-333	0.16	+7.1%	0	HIT
Isaac Collins	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-363	0.12	+6.9%	0	HIT
Michael Massey	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-346	0.13	+6.5%	0	HIT
Coby Mayo	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	6.1%	—	—
Jac Caglianone	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	6.1%	1	MISS
Dylan Beavers	hits	OVER	0.5	-167	0.82	+6.1%	1	HIT
Isaac Collins	runs	UNDER	0.5	-190	0.41	+5.9%	—	—
Salvador Perez	hits	OVER	0.5	-218	0.68	5.9%	2	HIT
Isaac Collins	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1460	0.00	5.8%	—	—
Kyle Isbel	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.15	+5.5%	0	HIT
Isaac Collins	hits	OVER	0.5	-132	0.68	+5.2%	2	HIT
Michael Massey	hits	OVER	0.5	-140	0.70	+4.8%	0	MISS
Maikel Garcia	hits	OVER	0.5	-267	1.02	+4.7%	3	HIT
Seth Lugo	hits allowed	UNDER	4.5	+106	4.50	4.6%	1	HIT
Pete Alonso	runs	UNDER	0.5	-144	0.50	+4.5%	—	—
Salvador Perez	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-202	0.32	+4.2%	0	HIT
Pete Alonso	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-183	0.36	+3.8%	0	HIT
Coby Mayo	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-298	0.13	+3.8%	—	—
Gunnar Henderson	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1180	0.20	+3.7%	—	—
Pete Alonso	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.11	3.6%	0	HIT
Colton Cowser	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	3.6%	—	—
Coby Mayo	runs	UNDER	0.5	-175	0.26	3.4%	—	—
Salvador Perez	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.17	3.2%	0	HIT
Samuel Basallo	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.21	+2.7%	0	HIT
Samuel Basallo	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.5%	—	—
Dylan Beavers	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.06	+2.5%	—	—
Gunnar Henderson	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.30	2.4%	0	HIT
Samuel Basallo	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-177	1.16	2.3%	2	MISS
Vinnie Pasquantino	runs	UNDER	0.5	-157	0.33	2.3%	—	—
Seth Lugo	outs recorded	UNDER	17.5	-105	17.50	2.2%	19	MISS
Salvador Perez	runs	UNDER	0.5	-160	0.41	+2.2%	—	—
Dylan Beavers	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.08	2.2%	0	HIT
Gunnar Henderson	runs	OVER	0.5	-118	0.54	+1.9%	—	—
Bobby Witt Jr.	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-205	0.26	+1.9%	1	MISS
Carter Jensen	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.9%	—	—
Jac Caglianone	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.9%	—	—
Michael Massey	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.9%	—	—
Taylor Ward	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.05	1.8%	0	HIT
Jeremiah Jackson	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.22	1.4%	0	HIT
Maikel Garcia	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.11	+1.4%	0	HIT
Jac Caglianone	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-314	0.04	+1.2%	1	MISS
Pete Alonso	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.05	+1.1%	—	—
Bobby Witt Jr.	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-111	1.50	0.8%	2	MISS
Coby Mayo	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.07	+0.8%	—	—
Isaac Collins	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.08	+0.8%	0	HIT
Michael Massey	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.13	+0.7%	0	HIT
Bobby Witt Jr.	hits	UNDER	1.5	-225	1.16	0.7%	2	MISS
Leody Taveras	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.11	+0.5%	1	MISS
Salvador Perez	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-161	1.30	+0.5%	2	MISS
Jeremiah Jackson	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.06	+0.3%	—	—
Samuel Basallo	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-233	0.16	+0.2%	2	MISS
Pete Alonso	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-126	1.44	0.1%	0	HIT
Samuel Basallo	runs	UNDER	0.5	-175	0.33	+0.0%	—	—
Taylor Ward	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.05	+0.0%	—	—