Pittsburgh Pirates

57% win

pred 5.4

Paul Skenes

FINAL

Arizona Diamondbacks

43% win

pred 4.5

Michael Soroka

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7
AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

2026-05-06 · 9:40 PM ET Chase Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Paul Skenes	SP	34.8	$9.8k	3.6
Brandon Lowe	2B	17.0	$5.3k	3.2
Spencer Horwitz	1B	8.0	$3.0k	2.7
Bryan Reynolds	LF	11.0	$4.6k	2.4
Michael Soroka	SP	18.9	$8.3k	2.3
Konnor Griffin	SS	8.0	$4.0k	2.0
Taylor Clarke	RP	4.3	$4.0k	1.1
Marcell Ozuna	DH	3.0	$3.2k	0.9
Gregory Soto	RP	3.7	$4.0k	0.9
Henry Davis	C	2.0	$2.4k	0.8
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF	2.5	$3.0k	0.8
Nolan Arenado	3B	3.0	$3.6k	0.8
Oneil Cruz	CF	5.0	$6.3k	0.8
Nick Gonzales	3B	2.0	$3.7k	0.5
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	2.0	$3.9k	0.5
Juan Morillo	RP	1.7	$4.0k	0.4
Ryan O'Hearn	RF	2.0	$5.0k	0.4
Kevin Ginkel	RP	1.5	$4.0k	0.4

Best Bets

OVER 7.5

TOTAL ★★ · +2.4 off line

-110 · $200 bet · $182 profit

Model: 9.9 vs Line: 7.5

LOSS

Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates

ML · Model 57% vs Mkt 54%

-132 · $76 per $100

WIN

Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

RL · 0.6 off line

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

OVER 7.5

TOTAL · Proj 9.9 vs Line 7.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Pittsburgh Pirates ML + Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 + OVER 7.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+541 · $541 per $100

LOSS

PIT 57% 43% AZ

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	84.0%	16.0%
6.5	77.3%	22.7%
7.5	66.5%	33.5%
8.5	59.6%	40.4%
9.5	48.9%	51.1%
10.5	40.8%	59.2%
11.5	32.3%	67.7%
12.5	26.2%	73.8%

Run Line (margin)

Line	AZ covers	PIT covers
AZ -1.5	28.6%	44.6%
AZ -2.5	18.7%	34.8%
AZ -3.5	12.9%	25.7%

Team Totals

Line	AZ	PIT
O 3.5	56.7%	71.3%
O 4.5	44.9%	56.8%
O 5.5	34.1%	44.5%
O 6.5	23.6%	31.7%

Odds

moneyline PIT 57% · -132 · $76 per $100

Book	PIT	Impl%	AZ	Impl%
DraftKings	-132	54.3%	+109	45.7%

runline Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

PIT -1.5: PIT 5.4 − 1.5 = 3.9 vs AZ 4.5 no bet

AZ +1.5: AZ 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs PIT 5.4 BET ✓

Book	PIT		AZ
DraftKings	-1.5	-110	+1.5	-110

total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 7.5 -115	U 7.5 -105

Player Projections actual (projected)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Oneil Cruz	CF	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.4	1.3	10.6	—
Brandon Lowe	2B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.4	1.2	9.8	—
Konnor Griffin	SS	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.3	1.0	9.1	—
Bryan Reynolds	RF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.5	1.1	9.0	—
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.5	—
Marcell Ozuna	DH	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.3	0.9	8.3	—
Nick Gonzales	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.9	—
Spencer Horwitz	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	7.8	—
Henry Davis	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.0	—
Gregory Soto	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.3	—
Isaac Mattson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.1	—
Evan Sisk	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Justin Lawrence	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	2.8	—
Yohan Ramírez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.7	—
Mason Montgomery	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	2.7	—
Dennis Santana	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.6	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Paul Skenes	Starter	5.9	6.0	5.3	1.7	2.6	54%	100%	18.2	—

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Corbin Carroll	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.3	1.1	8.7	—
Ketel Marte	2B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.1	8.4	—
Adrian Del Castillo	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.3	7.6	—
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.1	7.4	—
Nolan Arenado	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.9	7.3	—
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.8	7.3	—
Gabriel Moreno	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.0	—
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.8	—
Alek Thomas	CF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.2	1.0	6.5	—
Juan Morillo	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.4	—
Paul Sewald	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.3	—
Kevin Ginkel	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	2.9	—
Ryan Thompson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Taylor Clarke	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.5	—
Brandyn Garcia	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.2	—
Jonathan Loáisiga	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.8	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Michael Soroka	Starter	5.6	6.1	6.0	2.3	3.4	39%	100%	14.5	—

Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates — Hitting

Player	AB	H	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Oneil Cruz	4						1	$9,200 $4,100 $22	10.6	5.0	-5.6
Brandon Lowe	4	2		1	1			$8,200 $3,500 $18	9.8	17.0	+7.2
Bryan Reynolds	4	2					1	$7,400 $3,400 $19	9.0	11.0	+2.0
Ryan O'Hearn	3					1		$5,000 $3,400 $17	8.5	2.0	-6.5
Nick Gonzales	3						1	$6,400 $2,800 $14	7.9	2.0	-5.9
Marcell Ozuna	4	1						$5,400 $2,700 $13	8.3	3.0	-5.3
Spencer Horwitz	4	1	1				1	$3,000 $2,700 $14	7.8	8.0	+0.2
Konnor Griffin	4	1					2	$7,000 $3,000 $16	9.1	8.0	-1.1
Henry Davis	3					1	1	$2,400 $2,400 $10	7.0	2.0	-5.0
TOTALS	33	7	1	1	1	2	7		77.7	58.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Paul Skenes	8.0	2	0	7		0	26	$12,800 $10,900 $52	18.2	34.8	+16.6
Gregory Soto	1.0		0	1	1	0	4	$4,000 — —	3.3	3.7	+0.3

Arizona Diamondbacks — Hitting

Player	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Geraldo Perdomo	3			1	1	$6,800 $3,000 $16	7.4	2.0	-5.4
Ketel Marte	4					$8,000 $2,800 $13	8.4	0.0	-8.4
Corbin Carroll	4					$8,600 $3,700 $19	8.7	0.0	-8.7
Adrian Del Castillo	3				1	$5,800 $2,900 $11	7.6	0.0	-7.6
Ildemaro Vargas	3					$4,100 — $15	7.3	0.0	-7.3
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	3	1			1	$5,000 $2,700 $14	6.8	2.5	-4.3
Nolan Arenado	3	1			1	$3,600 $2,800 $13	7.3	3.0	-4.3
Gabriel Moreno	3				2	$5,600 $2,700 $13	7.0	0.0	-7.0
Alek Thomas	2				1	$4,600 $2,700 $11	6.5	0.0	-6.5
Jose Fernandez	1				1	$3,800 — —	—	0.0
TOTALS	29	2	0	1	8		66.9	7.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Michael Soroka	6.0	7	1	6	2	1	27	$8,300 $9,700 $39	14.5	18.9	+4.4
Kevin Ginkel	0.2		0			0	2	$4,000 — —	2.9	1.5	-1.4
Juan Morillo	1.0		0			0	4	$4,000 — —	3.4	1.7	-1.7
Taylor Clarke	1.0		0	1		0	3	$4,000 — —	2.5	4.3	+1.8