Pittsburgh Pirates

53% win

pred 5.2

Mitch Keller

FINAL

Arizona Diamondbacks

47% win

pred 4.7

Zac Gallen

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	4	7
AZ	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

2026-05-07 · 3:40 PM ET Chase Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Joey Bart	C	14.5	$2.6k	5.6
Brandon Lowe	2B	18.0	$5.2k	3.5
Corbin Carroll	OF	15.0	$5.6k	2.7
Spencer Horwitz	1B	7.0	$2.8k	2.5
James McCann	C	3.0	$2.2k	1.4
Adrian Del Castillo	C	4.5	$3.6k	1.3
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	4.0	$4.0k	1.0
Ryan O'Hearn	1B/OF	4.0	$4.7k	0.9
Jorge Barrosa	OF	1.5	$2.5k	0.6
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	2.5	$4.6k	0.5
Bryan Reynolds	OF	2.0	$4.5k	0.4
Jose Fernandez	1B/SS	1.5	$3.7k	0.4
Oneil Cruz	OF	1.5	$6.2k	0.2

Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates

ML · Model 53% vs Mkt 48%

-103 · $97 per $100

WIN

Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5

RL · 1.0 off line

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 9.9 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Pittsburgh Pirates ML + Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+618 · $618 per $100

LOSS

PIT 53% 47% AZ

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	84.2%	15.8%
6.5	78.7%	21.3%
7.5	68.0%	32.0%
8.5	58.9%	41.1%
9.5	49.8%	50.2%
10.5	40.9%	59.1%
11.5	31.7%	68.3%
12.5	25.1%	74.9%

Run Line (margin)

Line	AZ covers	PIT covers
AZ -1.5	33.7%	41.4%
AZ -2.5	24.9%	30.9%
AZ -3.5	17.1%	22.7%

Team Totals

Line	AZ	PIT
O 3.5	59.2%	67.7%
O 4.5	47.0%	54.1%
O 5.5	34.9%	42.5%
O 6.5	25.8%	30.9%

Odds

moneyline PIT 53% · -103 · $97 per $100

Book	PIT	Impl%	AZ	Impl%
DraftKings	-103	48.5%	-117	51.5%

runline Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

PIT -1.5: PIT 5.2 − 1.5 = 3.7 vs AZ 4.7 no bet

AZ +1.5: AZ 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs PIT 5.2 BET ✗

Book	PIT		AZ
DraftKings	-1.5	-110	+1.5	-110

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -120	U 8.5 +100

Player Projections actual (projected)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Oneil Cruz	CF	1.0	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.2	9.6	—
Brandon Lowe	2B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	9.3	—
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.4	0.9	9.1	—
Konnor Griffin	SS	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.3	1.0	8.7	—
Bryan Reynolds	RF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.5	0.9	8.4	—
Jake Mangum	LF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.8	8.1	—
Spencer Horwitz	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.7	8.0	—
Jared Triolo	SS	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.6	—
Joey Bart	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.5	—
Evan Sisk	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8	4.7	—
Yohan Ramírez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.1	4.6	—
Isaac Mattson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.8	—
Mason Montgomery	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.7	—
Dennis Santana	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.7	—
Gregory Soto	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	2.5	—
Justin Lawrence	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Mitch Keller	Starter	6.0	5.7	6.1	1.9	3.1	50%	100%	16.0	—

Arizona Diamondbacks

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Corbin Carroll	RF	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	9.5	—
Ketel Marte	2B	1.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.9	9.0	—
Adrian Del Castillo	C	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.3	1.1	8.4	—
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.5	0.9	8.3	—
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.7	7.9	—
Jose Fernandez	SS	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
James McCann	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.2	1.0	6.9	—
Jorge Barrosa	LF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.2	1.0	6.6	—
Alek Thomas	CF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.8	6.6	—
Jonathan Loáisiga	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.3	—
Paul Sewald	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.1	—
Brandyn Garcia	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.0	—
Juan Morillo	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.0	—
Kevin Ginkel	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Ryan Thompson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.4	—
Taylor Clarke	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Zac Gallen	Starter	5.5	5.4	5.8	2.2	3.2	44%	100%	13.8	—

Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates — Hitting

Player	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Oneil Cruz	3				1	1	$6,200 $4,100 $20	9.6	1.5	-8.1
Brandon Lowe	5	3	1	1			$5,200 $3,600 $18	9.3	18.0	+8.7
Bryan Reynolds	3				1		$4,500 $3,400 $18	8.4	2.0	-6.4
Ryan O'Hearn	4	1		1		2	$4,700 $3,400 $16	9.1	4.0	-5.1
Spencer Horwitz	3	1		1	1		$2,800 $2,700 $14	8.0	7.0	-1.0
Konnor Griffin	4					2	$4,200 $3,100 $16	8.7	-1.0	-9.7
Jared Triolo	4					1	$2,300 — $11	7.6	-0.5	-8.1
Billy Cook	4					1	$2,500 — —	—	-0.5
Joey Bart	4	2	1	1		1	$2,600 $2,300 $8	7.5	14.5	+7.1
TOTALS	34	7	2	4	3	8		68.1	45.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Mitch Keller	5.2	4	2	4	2	1	23	$7,900 $9,600 $37	16.0	16.6	+0.6
Dennis Santana	0.2		0		1	0	3	$4,000 — —	2.7	0.9	-1.8
Mason Montgomery	0.2	1	0		1	0	4	$4,000 — —	2.7	0.3	-2.4
Isaac Mattson	0.1		0	1		0	1	$4,000 — —	2.8	2.8	+0.0
Gregory Soto	1.0		0	1		0	3	$4,000 — —	2.5	4.3	+1.8

Arizona Diamondbacks — Hitting

Player	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Geraldo Perdomo	2				2		$4,000 $3,000 $17	8.3	4.0	-4.3
Ketel Marte	4					1	$5,000 $2,800 $15	9.0	-0.5	-9.5
Corbin Carroll	4	2	1	1			$5,600 $3,700 $20	9.5	15.0	+5.5
Adrian Del Castillo	3	1		1		1	$3,600 $2,900 $11	8.4	4.5	-3.9
Ildemaro Vargas	4	1				1	$4,600 — $17	7.9	2.5	-5.4
Jose Fernandez	3				1	1	$3,700 $2,800 $14	7.4	1.5	-5.9
Jorge Barrosa	3				1	1	$2,500 $2,600 $7	6.6	1.5	-5.1
James McCann	2	1					$2,200 $2,200 $8	6.9	3.0	-3.9
Alek Thomas	2						$2,700 $2,700 $12	6.6	0.0	-6.6
Gabriel Moreno	1						$3,300 $2,800 $15	—	0.0
Tim Tawa	1						— — —	—	0.0
Nolan Arenado	1					1	$3,400 $2,800 $14	—	-0.5
TOTALS	30	5	1	2	4	6		70.7	31.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Zac Gallen	6.0	6	4	5	2	2	28	$7,500 $7,200 $31	13.8	9.5	-4.3
Brandyn Garcia	0.2	1	0	1		0	3	— — —	3.0	2.9	-0.1
Ryan Thompson	1.0		0	2		0	3	— — —	2.4	6.3	+3.9
Paul Sewald	1.0		0		1	0	4	— — —	3.1	1.7	-1.4