Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers — 2026-04-21 | AI Sports Metrics

Pittsburgh Pirates

54% win

1

pred 5.2

Carmen Mlodzinski

FINAL

46% win

5

pred 4.7

Kumar Rocker

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
TEX	0	2	0	0	2		1	0		5	8

2026-04-21 · 8:05 PM ET Globe Life Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Josh Jung	3B	7.0	$2.7k	2.6
Josh Smith	2B	6.5	$2.6k	2.5
Jake Mangum	OF	6.0	$2.9k	2.1
Nick Gonzales	2B/3B	5.0	$3.2k	1.6
Danny Jansen	C	4.0	$3.0k	1.3
Evan Carter	OF	4.5	$3.8k	1.2
Ryan O'Hearn	OF	4.5	$4.7k	1.0
Corey Seager	SS	4.5	$5.3k	0.9
Joc Pederson	1B	2.0	$2.5k	0.8
Oneil Cruz	OF	2.5	$6.1k	0.4
Wyatt Langford	OF	1.5	$3.9k	0.4
Bryan Reynolds	OF	1.0	$4.4k	0.2

Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates

ML · Model 54%

LOSS

PIT 54% 46% TEX

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	83.4%	16.6%
6.5	75.6%	24.4%
7.5	66.7%	33.3%
8.5	60.3%	39.7%
9.5	49.8%	50.2%
10.5	41.8%	58.2%
11.5	33.9%	66.1%
12.5	27.4%	72.6%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TEX covers	PIT covers
TEX -1.5	32.0%	41.5%
TEX -2.5	22.1%	31.2%
TEX -3.5	15.2%	24.0%

Team Totals

Line	TEX	PIT
O 3.5	61.2%	66.8%
O 4.5	47.7%	55.4%
O 5.5	35.0%	42.0%
O 6.5	25.6%	31.5%

Player Projections actual (projected)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Oneil Cruz	CF	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.5	1.2	10.8	—
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.5	0.9	9.4	—
Bryan Reynolds	RF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.8	—
Marcell Ozuna	DH	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.8	—
Jake Mangum	LF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.7	8.5	—
Nick Yorke	2B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	8.1	—
Nick Gonzales	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.8	7.6	—
Konnor Griffin	SS	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.1	—
Henry Davis	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.9	6.8	—
Yohan Ramírez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9	4.1	—
Isaac Mattson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	4.0	—
Evan Sisk	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0	4.0	—
Justin Lawrence	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.3	—
Dennis Santana	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	3.2	—
Gregory Soto	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.0	—
Cam Sanders	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.3	5.2	5.3	2.2	2.8	48%	100%	14.3	—

Texas Rangers

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Brandon Nimmo	LF	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	8.8	—
Wyatt Langford	LF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	8.6	—
Corey Seager	SS	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.4	—
Jake Burger	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.1	8.0	—
Joc Pederson	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.5	—
Evan Carter	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.5	—
Josh Jung	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.2	—
Danny Jansen	C	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.9	6.7	—
Josh Smith	SS	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.8	6.5	—
Tyler Alexander	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.7	—
Jakob Junis	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.7	—
Cal Quantrill	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	3.5	—
Jacob Latz	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	3.4	—
Cole Winn	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.4	—
Jalen Beeks	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.5	—
Robert Garcia	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.5	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.5	5.5	5.8	2.3	3.2	43%	100%	13.8	—

Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Oneil Cruz	4	1						1	$6,100 $4,000 $20	10.8	2.5	-8.3
Ryan O'Hearn	4	1				1		1	$4,700 $3,500 $17	9.4	4.5	-4.9
Bryan Reynolds	3						1	2	$4,400 $3,500 $17	8.8	1.0	-7.8
Marcell Ozuna	4							2	$3,000 $2,600 $14	8.8	-1.0	-9.8
Nick Yorke	4								$2,300 $2,500 $12	8.1	0.0	-8.1
Nick Gonzales	4	2						2	$3,200 $2,800 $9	7.6	5.0	-2.6
Jake Mangum	4	2							$2,900 $2,600 $10	8.5	6.0	-2.5
Konnor Griffin	3								$3,100 $2,800 $14	7.1	0.0	-7.1
Henry Davis	3							1	$2,600 $2,300 $7	6.8	-0.5	-7.3
TOTALS	33	6				1	1	9		75.9	17.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Carmen Mlodzinski	4.1	6	4	6	2	0	21	$7,100 $8,200 $33	14.3	9.0	-5.3
Justin Lawrence	1.0		0	2		0	3	— — —	3.3	6.3	+3.0
Evan Sisk	1.0	1	0	2		0	4	— — —	4.0	5.7	+1.8

Texas Rangers — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Brandon Nimmo	4							1	$5,200 $3,400 $17	8.8	-0.5	-9.3
Wyatt Langford	1						1	1	$3,900 $2,700 $15	8.6	1.5	-7.1
Corey Seager	3	1				1		1	$5,300 $3,400 $19	8.4	4.5	-3.9
Jake Burger	3							1	$4,100 $3,100 $14	8.0	-0.5	-8.5
Joc Pederson	3	1						2	$2,500 $2,400 $10	7.5	2.0	-5.5
Josh Jung	2	1	1				1		$2,700 $2,700 $14	7.2	7.0	-0.2
Evan Carter	3	1				1		1	$3,800 $2,800 $14	7.5	4.5	-3.0
Danny Jansen	3	1	1					2	$3,000 $2,600 $11	6.7	4.0	-2.7
Josh Smith	2	1	1			1		1	$2,600 — $9	6.5	6.5	+0.0
Ezequiel Duran	1	1	1			1			— — —	—	7.0
TOTALS	25	7	4			4	2	10		69.2	36.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Kumar Rocker	5.2	4	1	5	1	0	23	$7,300 $7,300 $29	13.8	21.8	+8.0
Cole Winn	1.0	1	0	2		0	4	— — —	3.4	5.7	+2.3
Jacob Latz	1.0		0	2		0	3	— — —	3.4	6.3	+2.9
Jakob Junis	1.0	1	0			0	4	— — —	3.7	1.7	-2.0