Minnesota Twins

39% win

pred 4.6

FINAL

New York Mets

61% win

pred 5.7

Clay Holmes

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	7
NYM							2	1		3	8

2026-04-22 · 7:10 PM ET Citi Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Marcus Semien	2B	10.0	$2.8k	3.6
Luke Weaver	RP	11.8	$4.0k	3.0
Byron Buxton	CF	14.0	$5.4k	2.6
Francisco Alvarez	C	9.0	$3.8k	2.4
Trevor Larnach	RF	7.0	$3.0k	2.3
Mark Vientos	3B	7.0	$3.1k	2.3
Francisco Lindor	SS	10.0	$4.5k	2.2
Bo Bichette	SS	7.0	$3.6k	1.9
Brett Baty	3B	6.0	$3.5k	1.7
Clay Holmes	SP	14.2	$8.9k	1.6
Eric Orze	RP	6.3	$4.0k	1.6
Kody Clemens	2B	5.0	$3.3k	1.5
Tyrone Taylor	CF	3.0	$2.1k	1.4
Victor Caratini	C	4.0	$3.0k	1.3
Brooks Lee	3B	3.0	$2.5k	1.2
Royce Lewis	3B	3.0	$3.2k	0.9
Matt Wallner	RF	3.0	$3.2k	0.9
Josh Bell	1B	3.0	$3.8k	0.8
Brooks Raley	RP	2.3	$4.0k	0.6
Austin Martin	CF	2.0	$3.5k	0.6
Juan Soto	OF	3.0	$5.7k	0.5
Ryan Jeffers	C	2.0	$4.1k	0.5

Best Bets

OVER 7.5

TOTAL ★★ · +2.8 off line

-110 · $200 bet · $182 profit

Model: 10.3 vs Line: 7.5

LOSS

Predictions

New York Mets

ML · Model 61% vs Mkt 59%

-163 · $61 per $100

WIN

Minnesota Twins +1.5

RL · 0.4 off line

-169 · $59 per $100

WIN

OVER 7.5

TOTAL · Proj 10.3 vs Line 7.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

New York Mets ML + Minnesota Twins +1.5 + OVER 7.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+390 · $390 per $100

LOSS

MIN 39% 61% NYM

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	85.0%	15.0%
6.5	79.0%	21.0%
7.5	68.7%	31.3%
8.5	60.3%	39.7%
9.5	51.1%	48.9%
10.5	43.7%	56.3%
11.5	36.7%	63.3%
12.5	30.4%	69.6%

Run Line (margin)

Line	NYM covers	MIN covers
NYM -1.5	47.2%	30.3%
NYM -2.5	35.7%	20.6%
NYM -3.5	25.6%	14.3%

Team Totals

Line	NYM	MIN
O 3.5	69.9%	59.6%
O 4.5	57.3%	46.5%
O 5.5	46.3%	34.5%
O 6.5	35.1%	22.5%

Odds

moneyline NYM 61% · -163 · $61 per $100

Book	MIN	Impl%	NYM	Impl%
DraftKings	+135	40.7%	-163	59.3%
FanDuel	+136	40.7%	-162	59.3%
BetMGM	+135	40.9%	-160	59.1%
Caesars	+135	40.9%	-160	59.1%

runline Minnesota Twins +1.5 · -169 · $59 per $100

NYM -1.5: NYM 5.7 − 1.5 = 4.2 vs MIN 4.6 no bet

MIN +1.5: MIN 4.6 + 1.5 = 6.1 vs NYM 5.7 BET ✓

Book	MIN		NYM
DraftKings	+1.5	-171	-1.5	+141
FanDuel	+1.5	-170	-1.5	+140
Caesars	+1.5	-165	-1.5	+140

total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 7.5 -112	U 7.5 -108
FanDuel	O 7.5 -108	U 7.5 -112
BetMGM	O 7.5 -115	U 7.5 -105
Caesars	O 7.5 -120	U 7.5 +100

Player Projections actual (projected)

Minnesota Twins

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Byron Buxton	CF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.2	9.3	—
Luke Keaschall	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.4	0.7	7.9	—
Josh Bell	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.9	—
Trevor Larnach	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.6	1.0	7.7	—
Matt Wallner	RF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	7.6	—
Kody Clemens	2B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.5	—
Victor Caratini	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	7.4	—
Royce Lewis	3B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.2	—
Brooks Lee	3B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.8	6.5	—
Garrett Acton	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0	4.6	—
Cole Sands	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.3	—
Eric Orze	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.3	—
Taylor Rogers	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.3	—
Anthony Banda	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.1	—
Justin Topa	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.7	—

New York Mets

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Juan Soto	RF	1.1	0.2	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.7	0.8	10.6	—
Francisco Lindor	SS	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.4	0.8	9.5	—
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.1	9.2	—
Bo Bichette	SS	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.3	1.0	9.1	—
Francisco Alvarez	C	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.7	—
Mark Vientos	3B	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.4	—
Tommy Pham	LF	0.8	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.9	—
Marcus Semien	2B	0.8	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.7	7.9	—
Tyrone Taylor	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.8	7.4	—
Tobias Myers	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3	6.2	—
Brooks Raley	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.5	—
Luke Weaver	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.4	—
Huascar Brazobán	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Craig Kimbrel	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.3	—
Austin Warren	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	2.0	—
Devin Williams	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.6	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Clay Holmes	Starter	5.8	5.5	5.3	2.4	2.8	57%	100%	16.0	—

Box Score

Minnesota Twins — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Byron Buxton	5	1		1	1		2	$5,400 $2,900 $18	9.3	14.0	+4.7
Trevor Larnach	3	1	1	0	0		1	$3,000 $2,700 $13	7.7	7.0	-0.7
Josh Bell	4	1		0	0			$3,800 $3,300 $16	7.9	3.0	-4.9
Victor Caratini	2				1	1		$3,000 $2,800 $9	7.4	4.0	-3.3
Kody Clemens	3	1	1					$3,300 — $14	7.5	5.0	-2.5
Luke Keaschall	4	0		0	0			$4,300 $2,800 $14	7.9	0.0	-7.9
Matt Wallner	4	1		0	0		1	$3,200 $2,700 $13	7.6	3.0	-4.6
Royce Lewis	4	1		0	0		3	$3,200 $3,500 $14	7.2	3.0	-4.2
Brooks Lee	4	1		0	0			$2,500 $2,600 $12	6.5	3.0	-3.5
Austin Martin	0					1		$3,500 — —	—	2.0
Ryan Jeffers	0	0		0	0	1		$4,100 $3,200 $15	—	2.0
TOTALS	33	7	2	1	2	3	7		68.9	46.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Eric Orze	1.0		0	2		3	$4,000 — —	3.3	6.3	+2.9
Taylor Rogers	0.1	1	0		1	3	$4,000 — —	3.3	-1.7	-5.0
Justin Topa	0.1	1	1		1	3	$4,000 — —	1.7	-0.5	-2.1

New York Mets — Hitting

Player	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Tommy Pham	1	0	0	0		1	$2,300 $2,000 $9	7.9	0.0	-7.9
Tyrone Taylor	1	0	0	0			$2,100 $2,300 $11	7.4	3.0	-4.4
Bo Bichette	1	0	0	0		1	$3,600 $2,700 $15	9.1	7.0	-2.1
Juan Soto	1	1	0	0			$5,700 $4,000 $23	10.6	3.0	-7.6
Luis Robert Jr.	1	0	0	0			$4,900 $2,900 $16	9.2	0.0	-9.2
Brett Baty	0				1		$3,500 — —	—	6.0
Francisco Alvarez	0	0	0	0	1		$3,800 $2,800 $15	8.7	9.0	+0.3
Mark Vientos	1	1	0	1			$3,100 $2,600 $11	8.4	7.0	-1.3
Marcus Semien	1	0	0	0			$2,800 $2,500 $14	7.9	10.0	+2.1
TOTALS	7	2		1	2	2		69.1	45.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Clay Holmes	7.0	5	2	3	1	1	27	$8,900 $8,800 $38	16.0	14.2	-1.8
Brooks Raley	0.2	1	0	1	1	0	4	$4,000 — —	3.5	2.3	-1.2
Luke Weaver	1.1	1	0	3	1	0	6	$4,000 — —	3.4	11.8	+8.4

Player Props

Player	Prop	Side	Line	Odds	Proj	Edge	Actual	Result
Francisco Alvarez	total bases	OVER	0.5	-140	1.77	+33.1%	0	MISS
Ryan Jeffers	rbis	OVER	0.5	+223	0.75	+32.1%	0	MISS
Juan Soto	total bases	OVER	1.5	+124	2.16	+30.8%	1	MISS
Ryan Jeffers	total bases	OVER	0.5	-160	1.77	+30.1%	0	MISS
Josh Bell	total bases	OVER	0.5	-190	1.86	+28.1%	1	HIT
Josh Bell	rbis	OVER	0.5	+223	0.64	+27.3%	0	MISS
Matt Wallner	total bases	OVER	0.5	-120	1.31	+25.9%	1	HIT
Royce Lewis	total bases	OVER	0.5	-150	1.41	+23.8%	1	HIT
Trevor Larnach	total bases	OVER	0.5	-190	1.60	+23.0%	2	HIT
Juan Soto	hits	OVER	0.5	-228	1.44	+21.4%	1	HIT
Juan Soto	runs	OVER	0.5	-104	0.86	+21.4%	—	—
Byron Buxton	total bases	OVER	1.5	+123	1.87	+21.2%	4	HIT
Mark Vientos	total bases	OVER	0.5	-185	1.47	+20.7%	1	HIT
Brooks Lee	total bases	OVER	0.5	-150	1.27	+20.1%	1	HIT
Ryan Jeffers	runs	OVER	0.5	+157	0.58	+18.2%	—	—
Josh Bell	runs	OVER	0.5	+147	0.61	+18.0%	—	—
Juan Soto	rbis	OVER	0.5	+167	0.56	+17.8%	0	MISS
Luis Robert Jr.	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.10	16.5%	—	—
Trevor Larnach	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-403	0.30	+16.2%	0	HIT
Trevor Larnach	runs	OVER	0.5	+146	0.57	+16.0%	—	—
Tommy Pham	runs	OVER	0.5	+154	0.55	+15.9%	—	—
Luis Robert Jr.	runs	OVER	0.5	+127	0.62	+15.7%	—	—
Ryan Jeffers	hits	OVER	0.5	-148	0.97	+15.1%	0	MISS
Luke Keaschall	runs	OVER	0.5	+149	0.54	+14.9%	—	—
Luke Keaschall	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-336	0.34	+14.8%	0	HIT
Marcus Semien	total bases	OVER	0.5	-130	0.99	+14.7%	0	MISS
Francisco Lindor	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.09	13.6%	—	—
Tommy Pham	hits	OVER	0.5	-146	0.91	+13.0%	0	MISS
Bo Bichette	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-257	0.41	+13.0%	0	HIT
Mark Vientos	runs	OVER	0.5	+145	0.52	+13.0%	—	—
Royce Lewis	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-333	0.29	+12.6%	0	HIT
Francisco Alvarez	runs	OVER	0.5	+141	0.52	+12.4%	—	—
Brooks Lee	runs	UNDER	0.5	-254	0.41	+12.2%	—	—
Josh Bell	hits	OVER	0.5	-183	1.01	+12.1%	1	HIT
Brooks Lee	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-353	0.25	+11.8%	0	HIT
Trevor Larnach	hits	OVER	0.5	-166	0.95	+11.8%	1	HIT
Matt Wallner	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-315	0.28	+11.1%	0	HIT
Byron Buxton	runs	OVER	0.5	+114	0.58	+10.8%	—	—
Byron Buxton	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	10.6%	—	—
Francisco Alvarez	hits	OVER	0.5	-150	0.86	+10.3%	0	MISS
Bo Bichette	runs	OVER	0.5	+125	0.52	+10.0%	—	—
Royce Lewis	runs	UNDER	0.5	-244	0.38	+9.8%	—	—
Luis Robert Jr.	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-179	1.49	+9.7%	0	HIT
Bo Bichette	hits	UNDER	1.5	-257	0.87	9.5%	0	HIT
Clay Holmes	strikeouts	OVER	4.5	-116	5.01	+9.4%	3	MISS
Clay Holmes	hits allowed	UNDER	4.5	-123	4.00	9.4%	5	MISS
Mark Vientos	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-260	0.31	+8.9%	1	MISS
Luis Robert Jr.	hits	OVER	0.5	-225	1.04	+8.9%	0	MISS
Juan Soto	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	8.7%	—	—
Matt Wallner	runs	UNDER	0.5	-209	0.41	+8.3%	—	—
Brooks Lee	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.17	+7.8%	0	HIT
Marcus Semien	runs	UNDER	0.5	-192	0.44	+7.7%	—	—
Tyrone Taylor	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	7.7%	—	—
Tyrone Taylor	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-381	0.11	+7.3%	0	HIT
Byron Buxton	hits	OVER	0.5	-209	0.96	+7.3%	1	HIT
Mark Vientos	hits	OVER	0.5	-176	0.86	+6.7%	1	HIT
Royce Lewis	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.19	+6.5%	0	HIT
Matt Wallner	hits	OVER	0.5	-131	0.69	+5.8%	1	HIT
Josh Bell	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.18	+5.5%	0	HIT
Tommy Pham	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	5.4%	—	—
Marcus Semien	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-303	0.16	+5.4%	0	HIT
Juan Soto	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.14	5.3%	0	HIT
Bo Bichette	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-158	1.16	4.9%	0	HIT
Ryan Jeffers	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.16	+4.7%	0	HIT
Tommy Pham	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.14	+4.4%	0	HIT
Francisco Alvarez	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-293	0.14	+3.9%	0	HIT
Luke Keaschall	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-191	1.07	3.8%	0	HIT
Marcus Semien	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.05	3.7%	—	—
Trevor Larnach	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.13	+3.7%	0	HIT
Bo Bichette	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	3.6%	—	—
Royce Lewis	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.17	+3.6%	—	—
Byron Buxton	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-274	0.16	+3.5%	1	MISS
Tyrone Taylor	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.12	+3.4%	0	HIT
Trevor Larnach	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.9%	—	—
Brooks Lee	hits	OVER	0.5	-150	0.69	+2.7%	1	HIT
Luke Keaschall	hits	OVER	0.5	-231	0.90	+2.7%	0	MISS
Luke Keaschall	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.24	2.6%	—	—
Francisco Lindor	hits	OVER	0.5	-247	0.81	2.6%	—	—
Brooks Lee	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.6%	—	—
Matt Wallner	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.5%	—	—
Tyrone Taylor	hits	UNDER	0.5	-108	0.48	2.4%	0	HIT
Francisco Lindor	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-153	1.38	+2.2%	—	—
Byron Buxton	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.23	2.2%	1	HIT
Luis Robert Jr.	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-220	0.23	+2.1%	0	HIT
Tyrone Taylor	runs	UNDER	0.5	-213	0.29	+2.0%	—	—
Bo Bichette	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.05	2.0%	0	HIT
Marcus Semien	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.05	1.9%	0	HIT
Mark Vientos	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.9%	—	—
Francisco Lindor	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.10	1.6%	—	—
Francisco Alvarez	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.28	1.6%	0	HIT
Tommy Pham	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-350	0.00	+1.6%	0	HIT
Ryan Jeffers	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.5%	—	—
Victor Caratini	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	1.5%	—	—
Royce Lewis	hits	OVER	0.5	-145	0.64	+1.2%	1	HIT
Matt Wallner	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.18	1.2%	0	HIT
Clay Holmes	outs recorded	OVER	16.5	-126	16.70	+1.1%	21	HIT
Francisco Lindor	runs	UNDER	0.5	-126	0.49	+0.9%	—	—
Marcus Semien	hits	OVER	0.5	-177	0.73	+0.8%	0	MISS
Luis Robert Jr.	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.12	0.7%	0	HIT
Luke Keaschall	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	0.7%	0	HIT
Francisco Lindor	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-271	0.09	+0.4%	—	—
Mark Vientos	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.15	0.1%	0	HIT