Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers — 2026-04-22 | AI Sports Metrics

Pittsburgh Pirates

55% win

8

pred 5

Braxton Ashcraft

FINAL

45% win

4

pred 4.5

Jack Leiter

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	3	0	0		4	8	9
TEX	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	7

2026-04-22 · 8:05 PM ET Globe Life Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Josh Jung	3B	19.0	$3.1k	6.1
Spencer Horwitz	1B	8.0	$2.6k	3.1
Nick Gonzales	2B	10.0	$3.3k	3.0
Oneil Cruz	CF	18.0	$6.3k	2.9
Bryan Reynolds	RF	12.0	$4.5k	2.7
Braxton Ashcraft	SP	18.2	$8.2k	2.2
Marcell Ozuna	DH	7.0	$3.2k	2.2
Joc Pederson	1B	6.0	$2.8k	2.1
Evan Carter	CF	8.0	$4.0k	2.0
Tyler Alexander	RP	7.9	$4.0k	2.0
Kyle Higashioka	C	5.0	$2.9k	1.7
Jake Burger	1B	7.0	$4.2k	1.7
Gregory Soto	RP	6.5	$4.0k	1.6
Dennis Santana	RP	6.3	$4.0k	1.6
Henry Davis	C	4.0	$2.7k	1.5
Jake Mangum	LF	4.0	$2.9k	1.4
Andrew McCutchen	RF	5.0	$3.7k	1.4
Brandon Nimmo	LF	7.0	$5.2k	1.4
Jack Leiter	SP	11.1	$8.8k	1.3
Brandon Lowe	2B	7.0	$5.6k	1.3
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	5.0	$4.9k	1.0
Billy Cook	CF	2.0	$2.2k	0.9
Jalen Beeks	RP	0.9	$4.0k	0.2

Best Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates

ML ★ · +5.1% edge

Model: 55% vs Market: 50%

WIN

Predictions

Pittsburgh Pirates

ML · Model 55%

WIN

PIT 55% 45% TEX

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	80.4%	19.6%
6.5	74.5%	25.5%
7.5	63.2%	36.8%
8.5	56.0%	44.0%
9.5	46.6%	53.4%
10.5	37.1%	62.9%
11.5	27.9%	72.1%
12.5	21.5%	78.5%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TEX covers	PIT covers
TEX -1.5	31.6%	41.2%
TEX -2.5	22.9%	32.3%
TEX -3.5	15.6%	24.1%

Team Totals

Line	TEX	PIT
O 3.5	57.3%	64.0%
O 4.5	43.8%	51.0%
O 5.5	31.2%	39.2%
O 6.5	22.6%	29.5%

Player Projections actual (projected)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Oneil Cruz	CF	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.5	1.2	10.2	—
Brandon Lowe	2B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.5	1.1	9.6	—
Bryan Reynolds	RF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.5	1.0	8.4	—
Marcell Ozuna	DH	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.3	—
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.2	—
Spencer Horwitz	1B	0.8	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.8	—
Konnor Griffin	SS	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.0	7.6	—
Nick Gonzales	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
Henry Davis	C	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.4	—
Isaac Mattson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	4.3	—
Gregory Soto	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.7	—
Yohan Ramírez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9	3.4	—
Mason Montgomery	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	3.2	—
Dennis Santana	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.9	—
Evan Sisk	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.5	—
Justin Lawrence	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.7	6.0	5.5	2.3	2.8	52%	100%	16.8	—

Texas Rangers

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Corey Seager	SS	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.1	8.6	—
Brandon Nimmo	LF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.1	8.3	—
Jake Burger	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.2	7.7	—
Joc Pederson	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.1	7.4	—
Evan Carter	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.0	7.4	—
Josh Jung	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.1	7.1	—
Kyle Higashioka	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.0	—
Ezequiel Duran	SS	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.9	6.6	—
Josh Smith	SS	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.9	6.4	—
Tyler Alexander	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	3.9	—
Cal Quantrill	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	2.9	—
Cole Winn	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.9	—
Jakob Junis	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.8	—
Jalen Beeks	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.6	—
Robert Garcia	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.5	—
Jacob Latz	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3	0.6	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Jack Leiter	Starter	5.6	5.8	5.5	2.4	3.1	42%	100%	15.0	—

Box Score

Pittsburgh Pirates — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Oneil Cruz	5	1			1	3		3	$6,300 $4,100 $20	10.2	18.0	+7.8
Brandon Lowe	5	1				1		3	$5,600 $3,900 $20	9.6	7.0	-2.6
Bryan Reynolds	4	2	1			1			$4,500 $3,500 $17	8.4	12.0	+3.6
Marcell Ozuna	3	1				1			$3,200 $2,600 $14	8.3	7.0	-1.3
Ryan O'Hearn	2	1					1		$4,900 $3,500 $17	8.2	5.0	-3.2
Nick Gonzales	4	1							$3,300 $2,700 $9	7.4	10.0	+2.6
Spencer Horwitz	4	2							$2,600 $2,600 $16	7.8	8.0	+0.3
Konnor Griffin	4							2	$3,100 $2,800 $14	7.6	0.0	-7.6
Henry Davis	2						1	1	$2,700 $2,300 $7	6.4	4.0	-2.4
Jake Mangum	1					1			$2,900 — —	—	4.0
TOTALS	34	9	1		1	7	2	9		73.8	75.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Braxton Ashcraft	6.1	4	2	5	2	1	25	$8,200 $9,800 $42	16.8	18.2	+1.4
Gregory Soto	1.0	3	2	3		0	6	$4,000 — —	3.7	6.5	+2.8
Dennis Santana	1.0		0	2		0	3	$4,000 — —	2.9	6.3	+3.3

Texas Rangers — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Brandon Nimmo	4	1	1					1	$5,200 $3,400 $17	8.3	7.0	-1.3
Corey Seager	4							2	$5,300 $3,400 $19	8.6	0.0	-8.6
Jake Burger	4	1				2		1	$4,200 $3,100 $13	7.7	7.0	-0.7
Joc Pederson	1						2		$2,800 $2,500 $10	7.4	6.0	-1.4
Josh Jung	4	2			1	2		1	$3,100 $2,700 $14	7.1	19.0	+11.9
Evan Carter	4	1						2	$4,000 $2,700 $14	7.4	8.0	+0.6
Kyle Higashioka	4	1	1					1	$2,900 $2,700 $10	7.0	5.0	-2.0
Josh Smith	2								$2,700 — $9	6.4	0.0	-6.4
Ezequiel Duran	3							1	$2,400 — $8	6.6	0.0	-6.6
Andrew McCutchen	1	1							$3,700 — —	—	5.0
Sam Haggerty	1							1	$3,000 — —	—	0.0
TOTALS	32	7	2		1	4	2	10		66.5	57.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Jack Leiter	5.0	5	3	5	2	0	22	$8,800 $8,600 $40	15.0	11.1	-4.0
Tyler Alexander	1.2	1	0	2		0	7	$4,000 — —	3.9	7.9	+4.0
Cole Winn	0.1	2	1	1		0	4	$4,000 — —	2.9	-4.5	-7.3
Jalen Beeks	0.2	1	3	1		1	3	$4,000 — —	2.6	0.9	-1.7