Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox — 2026-04-20 | AI Sports Metrics

50% win

6

pred 5.1

Jack Flaherty

FINAL

50% win

8

pred 4.8

Sonny Gray

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	6	8
BOS	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	2		8	12

2026-04-20 · 11:10 AM ET Fenway Park 0°F

Predictions

Detroit Tigers

ML · Model 50%

LOSS

DET 50% 50% BOS

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	82.4%	17.6%
6.5	75.6%	24.4%
7.5	67.2%	32.8%
8.5	58.5%	41.5%
9.5	48.9%	51.1%
10.5	42.1%	57.9%
11.5	33.3%	66.7%
12.5	26.2%	73.8%

Run Line (margin)

Line	BOS covers	DET covers
BOS -1.5	34.4%	39.4%
BOS -2.5	21.9%	29.4%
BOS -3.5	15.5%	22.0%

Team Totals

Line	BOS	DET
O 3.5	62.2%	66.3%
O 4.5	47.4%	54.5%
O 5.5	36.3%	42.1%
O 6.5	26.4%	30.2%

Player Projections actual (projected)

Detroit Tigers

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Kevin McGonigle	SS	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	9.1	—
Gleyber Torres	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.7	—
Riley Greene	LF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.4	1.1	8.6	—
Kerry Carpenter	RF	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.4	—
Colt Keith	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.2	—
Dillon Dingler	C	1.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.2	1.0	8.2	—
Matt Vierling	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
Jake Rogers	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.0	—
Tyler Holton	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	4.1	—
Drew Anderson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8	4.0	—
Enmanuel De Jesus	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8	3.7	—
Will Vest	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	3.1	—
Kenley Jansen	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.9	—
Connor Seabold	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	1.8	—
Kyle Finnegan	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7	1.4	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Jack Flaherty	Starter	5.4	5.9	5.2	2.4	2.9	45%	100%	15.5	—

Boston Red Sox

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Wilyer Abreu	RF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.1	8.8	—
Trevor Story	SS	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.3	1.2	8.6	—
Roman Anthony	RF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.6	1.2	8.6	—
Jarren Duran	LF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	8.5	—
Willson Contreras	1B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.3	8.2	—
Masataka Yoshida	LF	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.2	—
Caleb Durbin	3B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.8	7.1	—
Marcelo Mayer	3B	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.0	6.9	—
Carlos Narváez	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.8	—
Jovani Morán	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6	6.3	—
Aroldis Chapman	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.5	—
Garrett Whitlock	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.1	—
Greg Weissert	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	2.8	—
Ryan Watson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.5	—
Danny Coulombe	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.3	—
Zack Kelly	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0	2.1	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Sonny Gray	Starter	5.4	5.3	5.7	2.0	3.0	45%	100%	14.0	—

Box Score

Detroit Tigers — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Kevin McGonigle	5	2	1					1	$8,200 $3,400 $17	9.1	7.5	-1.6
Gleyber Torres	4	1				1	1		$6,600 $2,900 $13	8.7	7.0	-1.7
Colt Keith	4								$6,800 $2,900 $11	8.2	0.0	-8.2
Riley Greene	3	2	1			2	2		$7,200 $3,100 $15	8.6	16.0	+7.4
Dillon Dingler	4						1		$7,400 $3,300 $16	8.2	2.0	-6.2
Kerry Carpenter	1							1	$7,000 $2,900 $15	8.4	-0.5	-8.9
Matt Vierling	4	1	1					2	$3,800 $2,300 $7	7.4	4.0	-3.4
Jake Rogers	4	1				1		1	$4,400 $2,300 $8	7.0	4.5	-2.5
Jahmai Jones	1	1				1			— — —	—	5.0
Wenceel Pérez	1								— — —	—	0.0
Spencer Torkelson	1							1	— — —	—	-0.5
TOTALS	32	8	3			5	4	6		65.6	45.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Jack Flaherty	3.1	3	1	3	6	0	20	$11,000 $9,000 $38	15.5	6.1	-9.4
Brant Hurter	2.2	2	1	2		0	10	— — —	—	6.8
Tyler Holton	0.2	4	3	1	2	0	7	— — —	4.1	-6.1	-10.2
Drew Anderson	1.1	3	2	1		0	7	— — —	4.0	-0.8	-4.8

Boston Red Sox — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Roman Anthony	2	1				1	3	1	$9,800 $2,900 $17	8.6	10.5	+1.9
Willson Contreras	5	1						1	$8,400 $3,300 $17	8.2	2.5	-5.7
Wilyer Abreu	4					1	1	1	$9,000 $3,300 $14	8.8	3.5	-5.3
Masataka Yoshida	4	2					1		$6,400 $2,500 $11	8.2	8.0	-0.2
Trevor Story	4	1	1				1	2	$7,800 $2,800 $15	8.6	6.0	-2.6
Jarren Duran	3							1	$9,400 $3,200 $16	8.5	-0.5	-9.0
Caleb Durbin	4	2	1				1		$5,200 $2,400 $12	7.1	10.0	+2.9
Marcelo Mayer	3	1							$5,400 $2,600 $10	6.9	3.0	-3.9
Carlos Narváez	3	2	1			1	1		$5,000 $2,400 $9	6.8	12.0	+5.2
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	2	1				2		1	— — —	—	6.5
Ceddanne Rafaela	2	1				2			— — —	—	7.0
TOTALS	36	12	3			7	8	7		71.8	68.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Sonny Gray	2.0	3	1	2	1	0	10	$11,400 $7,800 $39	14.0	4.1	-9.9
Danny Coulombe	0.2		0		1	0	4	— — —	2.3	0.9	-1.4
Zack Kelly	1.2		0	1		0	5	— — —	2.1	5.8	+3.7
Jovani Morán	0.0	1	1		2	0	3	— — —	6.3	—
Greg Weissert	0.2		0	2		0	2	— — —	2.8	5.5	+2.7
Garrett Whitlock	1.0		0			0	3	— — —	3.1	2.3	-0.8
Ryan Watson	1.1	3	1			0	7	— — —	2.5	-0.8	-3.3
Aroldis Chapman	0.2	1	2	1		0	3	— — —	3.5	-1.1	-4.6