Houston Astros

36% win

pred 4.4

Ryan Weiss

FINAL

Cleveland Guardians

64% win

pred 5.7

Parker Messick

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	5	10
CLE	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6		8	11

2026-04-21 · 6:10 PM ET Progressive Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Angel Martínez	OF	14.0	$3.6k	3.9
Kyle Manzardo	1B	12.0	$3.1k	3.9
Chase DeLauter	OF	16.0	$4.4k	3.6
Brice Matthews	2B/OF	9.5	$3.3k	2.9
Daniel Schneemann	3B/OF	6.5	$2.8k	2.3
Yordan Alvarez	OF	14.0	$6.5k	2.2
Carlos Correa	3B/SS	9.5	$4.9k	1.9
Brayan Rocchio	2B/SS	4.5	$2.5k	1.8
Steven Kwan	OF	7.0	$3.9k	1.8
George Valera	OF	4.5	$2.7k	1.7
Cam Smith	OF	5.5	$3.9k	1.4
Yainer Diaz	C	5.0	$4.0k	1.3
Isaac Paredes	2B/3B	5.0	$4.3k	1.2
Austin Hedges	C	2.5	$2.2k	1.1
José Ramírez	3B	5.0	$6.2k	0.8

Best Bets

Cleveland Guardians

ML ★ · +5.5% edge

-156 · $100 bet · $64 profit

Model: 64% vs Market: 58%

WIN

OVER 8.5

TOTAL ★ · +1.6 off line

-110 · $100 bet · $91 profit

Model: 10.1 vs Line: 8.5

WIN

Cleveland Guardians + OVER 8.5

SGP ★ · 2-leg same-game parlay

+213 · $100 bet · $213 profit

WIN

Predictions

Cleveland Guardians

ML · Model 64% vs Mkt 58%

-156 · $64 per $100

WIN

Houston Astros +1.5

RL · 0.2 off line

-158 · $63 per $100

LOSS

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 10.1 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

Cleveland Guardians ML + Houston Astros +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+412 · $412 per $100

LOSS

HOU 36% 64% CLE

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	83.0%	17.0%
6.5	76.1%	23.9%
7.5	66.5%	33.5%
8.5	58.3%	41.7%
9.5	49.2%	50.8%
10.5	41.7%	58.3%
11.5	33.5%	66.5%
12.5	28.8%	71.2%

Run Line (margin)

Line	CLE covers	HOU covers
CLE -1.5	50.0%	24.7%
CLE -2.5	37.3%	16.7%
CLE -3.5	27.7%	12.3%

Team Totals

Line	CLE	HOU
O 3.5	72.1%	54.1%
O 4.5	60.5%	40.9%
O 5.5	47.1%	29.7%
O 6.5	34.5%	22.8%

Odds

moneyline CLE 64% · -156 · $64 per $100

Book	HOU	Impl%	CLE	Impl%
DraftKings	+129	41.8%	-156	58.2%
FanDuel	+130	41.8%	-154	58.2%
BetMGM	+130	41.7%	-155	58.3%
Caesars	+130	41.7%	-155	58.3%

runline Houston Astros +1.5 · -158 · $63 per $100

CLE -1.5: CLE 5.7 − 1.5 = 4.2 vs HOU 4.4 no bet

HOU +1.5: HOU 4.4 + 1.5 = 5.9 vs CLE 5.7 BET ✗

Book	HOU		CLE
DraftKings	+1.5	-163	-1.5	+135
FanDuel	+1.5	-154	-1.5	+128
BetMGM	+1.5	-155	-1.5	+130
Caesars	+1.5	-160	-1.5	+135

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -122	U 8.5 +102
FanDuel	O 8.5 -122	U 8.5 +100
BetMGM	O 8.5 -120	U 8.5 +100
Caesars	O 8.5 -125	U 8.5 +105

Player Projections actual (projected)

Houston Astros

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Yordan Alvarez	LF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.9	—
Christian Walker	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.1	—
Jose Altuve	LF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.9	8.1	—
Carlos Correa	SS	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
Isaac Paredes	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.1	—
Cam Smith	RF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.0	7.0	—
Brice Matthews	SS	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.4	6.7	—
Yainer Diaz	C	0.9	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.2	0.9	6.4	—
Dustin Harris	CF	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.8	6.1	—
Kai-Wei Teng	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	5.2	—
Bryan King	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	4.4	—
Enyel De Los Santos	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.5	—
Christian Roa	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	3.5	—
AJ Blubaugh	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.3	—
Jayden Murray	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Steven Okert	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.8	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Ryan Weiss	Starter	3.5	3.7	4.2	2.0	2.7	4%	100%	6.4	—

Cleveland Guardians

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
José Ramírez	3B	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.5	0.8	11.2	—
Chase DeLauter	RF	1.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.0	0.5	1.0	11.2	—
Steven Kwan	LF	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.5	0.9	9.8	—
George Valera	RF	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.5	1.0	9.7	—
Kyle Manzardo	1B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	8.9	—
Daniel Schneemann	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.1	8.6	—
Brayan Rocchio	SS	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.8	8.3	—
Angel Martínez	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	8.2	—
Austin Hedges	C	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.1	—
Cade Smith	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	4.3	—
Peyton Pallette	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.7	—
Erik Sabrowski	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.6	—
Matt Festa	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	3.3	—
Shawn Armstrong	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.0	—
Connor Brogdon	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	1.7	—
Tim Herrin	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Parker Messick	Starter	6.9	6.8	6.4	2.4	3.2	63%	100%	20.1	—

Box Score

Houston Astros — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Carlos Correa	4	2		1	1	1	$4,900 $3,200 $15	7.7	9.5	+1.8
Yordan Alvarez	5	2	1	3			$6,500 $4,500 $23	8.9	14.0	+5.1
Jose Altuve	5					2	$5,200 $3,400 $18	8.1	-1.0	-9.1
Christian Walker	4						$4,800 $3,400 $17	8.1	0.0	-8.1
Isaac Paredes	3	1			1		$4,300 $2,800 $13	7.1	5.0	-2.1
Cam Smith	4	2				1	$3,900 $3,000 $14	7.0	5.5	-1.5
Yainer Diaz	5	1	1				$4,000 $2,600 $12	6.4	5.0	-1.4
Brice Matthews	3	2	1	1		1	$3,300 $2,300 $10	6.7	9.5	+2.8
Dustin Harris	1						$2,600 $2,100 $8	6.1	0.0	-6.1
Daniel Johnson	0				1		— — —	—	—
TOTALS	34	10	3	5	3	5		66.0	47.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Ryan Weiss	3.1	5	2	4	4	1	19	$6,200 $6,400 $25	6.4	5.5	-0.9
Colton Gordon	1.0	2	0	1		0	5	— — —	—	3.1
Kai-Wei Teng	2.1		0	2	1	0	8	— — —	5.2	8.7	+3.5
Enyel De Los Santos	0.1	2	1		1	0	4	— — —	3.5	-3.1	-6.6
Bryan King	0.1	2	5		1	0	5	— — —	4.4	-11.0	-15.4

Cleveland Guardians — Hitting

Player	AB	H	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Steven Kwan	3	1				2		$3,900 $2,700 $13	9.8	7.0	-2.8
Chase DeLauter	4	1	1		3	1		$4,400 $3,300 $16	11.2	16.0	+4.9
José Ramírez	4	1				1		$6,200 $3,600 $22	11.2	5.0	-6.2
Kyle Manzardo	4	2			2	1		$3,100 $2,400 $11	8.9	12.0	+3.1
George Valera	5	1			1		1	$2,700 $2,500 $10	9.7	4.5	-5.2
Daniel Schneemann	2	1				2	1	$2,800 — $13	8.6	6.5	-2.1
Angel Martínez	4	2		1	1		2	$3,600 $2,900 $10	8.2	14.0	+5.8
Austin Hedges	2	1					1	$2,200 $2,500 $8	8.1	2.5	-5.6
Brayan Rocchio	4	1			1		1	$2,500 $2,800 $14	8.3	4.5	-3.8
Bo Naylor	2						1	$2,700 $2,300 $12	—	-0.5
TOTALS	34	11	1	1	8	7	7		83.9	71.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Parker Messick	5.0	6	3	4	1	21	$8,600 $10,600 $49	20.1	13.1	-7.0
Shawn Armstrong	1.0		0			3	— — —	3.0	2.3	-0.7
Connor Brogdon	0.1	1	0			3	— — —	1.7	0.2	-1.5
Tim Herrin	0.2	1	1			4	— — —	1.0	-1.1	-2.1
Peyton Pallette	1.0		0		1	4	— — —	3.7	1.7	-2.0
Cade Smith	0.2	2	1	1	1	5	— — —	4.3	-0.3	-4.6