Cincinnati Reds

52% win

pred 5

Brandon Williamson

FINAL

Tampa Bay Rays

48% win

pred 4.8

Nick Martinez

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5
TB	0	3	1	0	1	0	1	0		6	9

2026-04-22 · 1:10 PM ET Tropicana Field

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Ryan Vilade	1B/OF	10.0	$2.2k	4.6
Junior Caminero	3B	14.0	$5.2k	2.7
Yandy Díaz	1B/3B	10.5	$5.1k	2.1
Spencer Steer	OF	5.0	$2.6k	1.9
Ben Williamson	2B/SS	4.5	$2.5k	1.8
Taylor Walls	SS	3.0	$2.4k	1.3
Chandler Simpson	OF	5.0	$4.5k	1.1
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	2.5	$2.3k	1.1
TJ Friedl	OF	3.0	$3.6k	0.8
Matt McLain	2B	2.5	$3.1k	0.8
Will Benson	OF	2.0	$2.5k	0.8
P.J. Higgins	C	1.5	$2.2k	0.7
Jonny DeLuca	OF	2.0	$3.2k	0.6
Sal Stewart	1B/2B	2.5	$4.9k	0.5
Jonathan Aranda	1B	1.0	$4.0k	0.3

Best Bets

Cincinnati Reds

ML ★ · +7.7% edge

+119 · $100 bet · $119 profit

Model: 52% vs Market: 44%

LOSS

Predictions

Cincinnati Reds

ML · Model 52% vs Mkt 44%

+119 · $119 per $100

LOSS

Cincinnati Reds +1.5

RL · 1.8 off line

-181 · $55 per $100

LOSS

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 9.8 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Cincinnati Reds ML + Cincinnati Reds +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+549 · $549 per $100

LOSS

CIN 52% 48% TB

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	82.6%	17.4%
6.5	75.8%	24.2%
7.5	66.4%	33.6%
8.5	57.8%	42.2%
9.5	48.1%	51.9%
10.5	40.6%	59.4%
11.5	31.8%	68.2%
12.5	25.2%	74.8%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TB covers	CIN covers
TB -1.5	35.4%	39.3%
TB -2.5	24.5%	29.7%
TB -3.5	18.0%	21.7%

Team Totals

Line	TB	CIN
O 3.5	61.9%	64.1%
O 4.5	48.0%	51.5%
O 5.5	34.7%	39.2%
O 6.5	25.4%	29.6%

Odds

moneyline CIN 52% · +119 · $119 per $100

Book	CIN	Impl%	TB	Impl%
DraftKings	+119	43.7%	-143	56.3%
FanDuel	+118	44.2%	-138	55.8%
BetMGM	+110	45.3%	-135	54.7%
Caesars	+118	44%	-140	56%

runline Cincinnati Reds +1.5 · -181 · $55 per $100

TB -1.5: TB 4.8 − 1.5 = 3.3 vs CIN 5.0 no bet

CIN +1.5: CIN 5.0 + 1.5 = 6.5 vs TB 4.8 BET ✗

Book	CIN		TB
DraftKings	+1.5	-181	-1.5	+149
FanDuel	+1.5	-176	-1.5	+146
BetMGM	+1.5	-190	-1.5	+154
Caesars	+1.5	-178	-1.5	+150

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -112	U 8.5 -108
FanDuel	O 8.5 -110	U 8.5 -110
BetMGM	O 8.5 -110	U 8.5 -110
Caesars	O 8.5 -110	U 8.5 -110

Player Projections actual (projected)

Cincinnati Reds

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Sal Stewart	3B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.9	10.0	—
Elly De La Cruz	SS	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.3	1.1	9.6	—
TJ Friedl	CF	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.9	8.5	—
Matt McLain	2B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	8.4	—
Eugenio Suárez	3B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.1	—
Spencer Steer	1B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.9	8.0	—
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.7	—
Will Benson	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	7.6	—
P.J. Higgins	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.8	6.8	—
Connor Phillips	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	4.2	—
Emilio Pagán	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.7	—
Brock Burke	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	3.5	—
Sam Moll	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.9	—
Kyle Nicolas	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.9	—
Graham Ashcraft	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.4	—
Pierce Johnson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	2.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Brandon Williamson	Starter	5.1	4.3	5.1	2.2	2.9	45%	100%	11.9	—

Tampa Bay Rays

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Yandy Díaz	1B	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.5	0.8	9.2	—
Chandler Simpson	CF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.6	8.7	—
Junior Caminero	3B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.8	8.7	—
Jonathan Aranda	1B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.5	1.0	8.6	—
Jonny DeLuca	CF	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.8	8.5	—
Ryan Vilade	RF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.6	—
Nick Fortes	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.7	7.3	—
Taylor Walls	SS	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.9	6.9	—
Cole Sulser	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4	5.3	—
Bryan Baker	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.5	—
Ian Seymour	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	3.5	—
Hunter Bigge	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	3.1	—
Griffin Jax	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.4	2.6	—
Ben Williamson	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.1	2.3	—
Yoendrys Gómez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8	1.5	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Nick Martinez	Starter	5.5	5.3	5.1	2.1	2.9	45%	100%	14.6	—

Box Score

Cincinnati Reds — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
TJ Friedl	4	1		0	0			$3,600 $2,600 $13	8.5	3.0	-5.5
Matt McLain	4	1		0	0		1	$3,100 $2,700 $12	8.4	2.5	-5.9
Elly De La Cruz	4	0		0	0		2	$6,200 $3,800 $19	9.6	-1.0	-10.6
Sal Stewart	4	1		0	0		1	$4,900 $3,800 $22	10.0	2.5	-7.5
Eugenio Suárez	4						1	$4,500 $2,800 $16	8.1	-0.5	-8.6
Nathaniel Lowe	4	1		0	0		1	$2,300 $2,400 $8	7.7	2.5	-5.2
Spencer Steer	3	1	1	0	0			$2,600 $2,700 $13	8.0	5.0	-3.0
Will Benson	2	0		0	0	1		$2,500 $2,200 $7	7.6	2.0	-5.6
P.J. Higgins	2	0		0	1		1	$2,200 $2,000 $7	6.8	1.5	-5.3
TOTALS	31	5	1		1	1	7		74.7	17.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Brandon Williamson	3.2	7	5	3	3	1	22	$6,700 $6,700 $30	11.9	-2.4	-14.3
Connor Phillips	1.2	2	1	1		0	8	— — —	4.2	2.6	-1.6
Tony Santillan	0.2		0			0	2	— — —	—	1.5
Brock Burke	1.0		0			0	3	— — —	3.5	2.3	-1.2

Tampa Bay Rays — Hitting

Player	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Yandy Díaz	4	3		1		1	$5,100 $3,600 $18	9.2	10.5	+1.3
Jonathan Aranda	2	0	0	0	1	2	$4,000 $3,300 $17	8.6	1.0	-7.6
Junior Caminero	4	1	1	2			$5,200 $3,200 $18	8.7	14.0	+5.3
Ryan Vilade	2	2	0	1	1		$2,200 $2,200 $7	7.6	10.0	+2.4
Jonny DeLuca	3	0	0	0	1		$3,200 $2,900 $13	8.5	2.0	-6.5
Ben Williamson	4	1		1		1	$2,500 $2,700 $11	2.3	4.5	+2.2
Chandler Simpson	3	1	0	1			$4,500 $2,900 $12	8.7	5.0	-3.7
Nick Fortes	3	0	0	0			$2,700 $2,600 $11	7.3	0.0	-7.3
Taylor Walls	3	1	0	0			$2,400 $2,800 $12	6.9	3.0	-3.9
Richie Palacios	1						— — —	—	0.0
TOTALS	29	9	1	6	3	4		67.9	50.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Nick Martinez	8.0	5	1	6	1	0	30	$7,300 $8,500 $32	14.6	28.4	+13.8
Kevin Kelly	1.0		0	1		0	3	— — —	—	4.3

Player Props

Player	Prop	Side	Line	Odds	Proj	Edge	Actual	Result
Brandon Williamson	walks allowed	OVER	2.5	+128	4.00	+50.3%	3	HIT
Sal Stewart	total bases	OVER	1.5	+103	2.73	+40.8%	1	MISS
Elly De La Cruz	total bases	OVER	1.5	+134	2.34	+37.8%	0	MISS
Brandon Williamson	outs recorded	UNDER	15.5	-128	12.30	37.4%	11	HIT
Jonny Deluca	total bases	OVER	0.5	-175	2.03	+32.4%	0	MISS
Sal Stewart	rbis	OVER	0.5	+129	1.00	+30.6%	0	MISS
Spencer Steer	total bases	OVER	0.5	-160	1.77	+30.1%	2	HIT
P.J. Higgins	total bases	OVER	0.5	-115	1.38	+28.8%	0	MISS
Nick Fortes	total bases	OVER	0.5	-140	1.51	+27.6%	0	MISS
Elly De La Cruz	rbis	OVER	0.5	+179	0.74	+27.2%	0	MISS
Jonny Deluca	rbis	OVER	0.5	+204	0.67	+26.8%	0	MISS
Nick Martinez	hits allowed	UNDER	5.5	-149	4.00	23.8%	5	HIT
Nathaniel Lowe	total bases	OVER	0.5	-165	1.51	+23.7%	1	HIT
Nick Fortes	runs	OVER	0.5	+167	0.65	+23.0%	—	—
Chandler Simpson	runs	OVER	0.5	+145	0.71	+23.0%	—	—
Jonny Deluca	runs	OVER	0.5	+144	0.70	+22.6%	—	—
P.J. Higgins	runs	UNDER	0.5	-343	0.49	+21.9%	—	—
Ryan Vilade	total bases	OVER	0.5	-155	1.30	+20.0%	2	HIT
Jonathan Aranda	rbis	OVER	0.5	+191	0.53	+19.4%	0	MISS
Sal Stewart	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.42	+19.1%	0	HIT
Jonathan Aranda	total bases	OVER	1.5	+145	1.70	+19.0%	0	MISS
Jonny Deluca	hits	OVER	0.5	-175	1.17	+19.0%	0	MISS
Nick Fortes	hits	OVER	0.5	-153	1.08	+18.7%	0	MISS
Nathaniel Lowe	runs	OVER	0.5	+150	0.59	+17.9%	—	—
Junior Caminero	total bases	OVER	1.5	+109	1.84	+17.4%	4	HIT
Ryan Vilade	runs	OVER	0.5	+153	0.58	+17.4%	—	—
Sal Stewart	runs	OVER	0.5	+104	0.73	+16.7%	—	—
P.J. Higgins	hits	OVER	0.5	-106	0.82	+16.6%	0	MISS
Will Benson	total bases	OVER	0.5	-150	1.10	+15.0%	0	MISS
Spencer Steer	runs	OVER	0.5	+154	0.52	+14.6%	—	—
Ryan Vilade	hits	OVER	0.5	-153	0.96	+14.1%	2	HIT
Elly De La Cruz	runs	OVER	0.5	+107	0.65	+13.1%	—	—
Nathaniel Lowe	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-334	0.30	+13.0%	0	HIT
Brandon Williamson	hits allowed	UNDER	5.5	-167	4.50	12.6%	7	MISS
Elly De La Cruz	hits	OVER	0.5	-205	1.08	+12.3%	0	MISS
Nick Martinez	walks allowed	UNDER	1.5	+109	1.33	11.4%	1	HIT
Junior Caminero	runs	OVER	0.5	-101	0.65	+11.3%	—	—
Taylor Walls	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-434	0.13	+10.2%	0	HIT
Taylor Walls	runs	UNDER	0.5	-253	0.38	+10.2%	—	—
Nathaniel Lowe	hits	OVER	0.5	-196	0.99	+9.8%	1	HIT
Will Benson	runs	UNDER	0.5	-229	0.41	+9.8%	—	—
Taylor Walls	hits	OVER	0.5	-101	0.63	+9.1%	1	HIT
Junior Caminero	hits	OVER	0.5	-240	1.08	+9.1%	1	HIT
Matt McLain	runs	OVER	0.5	+118	0.53	+9.0%	—	—
Jonathan Aranda	runs	OVER	0.5	+104	0.58	+9.0%	—	—
Jonathan Aranda	hits	OVER	0.5	-197	0.97	+8.9%	0	MISS
TJ Friedl	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-418	0.10	+8.4%	0	HIT
Nick Fortes	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-309	0.22	+8.3%	0	HIT
Taylor Walls	total bases	OVER	0.5	-105	0.64	+7.1%	1	HIT
TJ Friedl	hits	OVER	0.5	-202	0.62	7.1%	1	HIT
Spencer Steer	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.23	+7.0%	0	HIT
P.J. Higgins	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-489	0.00	+6.9%	1	MISS
Taylor Walls	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1020	0.25	+6.7%	—	—
Nick Martinez	outs recorded	UNDER	16.5	-107	16.20	6.5%	24	MISS
Chandler Simpson	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-188	1.37	+6.4%	1	HIT
Will Benson	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.06	6.4%	—	—
Brandon Williamson	strikeouts	OVER	3.5	+108	3.56	+5.9%	3	MISS
Spencer Steer	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-297	0.18	+5.9%	0	HIT
Ryan Vilade	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-304	0.17	+5.8%	1	MISS
Elly De La Cruz	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-336	0.27	5.6%	—	—
Spencer Steer	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	5.4%	—	—
Matt McLain	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-331	0.12	+5.3%	0	HIT
Sal Stewart	hits	UNDER	1.5	-265	1.22	+5.3%	1	HIT
Spencer Steer	hits	OVER	0.5	-193	0.87	+5.2%	1	HIT
P.J. Higgins	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	5.0%	—	—
Jonny Deluca	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.17	+5.0%	0	HIT
Matt McLain	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	4.8%	0	HIT
Chandler Simpson	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-436	0.24	4.7%	—	—
P.J. Higgins	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.12	+4.4%	0	HIT
Chandler Simpson	hits	UNDER	1.5	-275	1.18	+4.2%	1	HIT
Junior Caminero	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-193	0.34	+4.1%	2	MISS
Matt McLain	hits	OVER	0.5	-209	0.88	+3.9%	1	HIT
Chandler Simpson	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-312	0.11	+3.8%	1	MISS
Ryan Vilade	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.15	+3.8%	0	HIT
TJ Friedl	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1160	0.20	+3.5%	—	—
Junior Caminero	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.20	3.4%	1	MISS
Junior Caminero	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.9%	—	—
Will Benson	hits	OVER	0.5	-146	0.68	+2.9%	0	MISS
TJ Friedl	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	2.9%	0	HIT
Nathaniel Lowe	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.14	+2.6%	0	HIT
Jonny Deluca	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1120	0.12	2.5%	—	—
TJ Friedl	runs	UNDER	0.5	-174	0.37	+2.2%	—	—
Sal Stewart	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-1140	0.18	+1.9%	—	—
Matt McLain	total bases	UNDER	1.5	-182	1.16	1.8%	1	HIT
Elly De La Cruz	home runs	UNDER	1.5	-110	0.38	1.7%	0	HIT
Matt McLain	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-790	0.18	1.6%	—	—
Chandler Simpson	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	+1.4%	0	HIT
Ben Williamson	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-10000	0.11	+1.3%	—	—
Will Benson	rbis	UNDER	0.5	-318	0.03	+1.0%	0	HIT
Nick Martinez	strikeouts	UNDER	4.5	-148	4.14	0.8%	6	MISS
Nick Fortes	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.07	0.8%	0	HIT
Taylor Walls	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	0.7%	0	HIT
Jonathan Aranda	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.17	+0.5%	0	HIT
Ryan Vilade	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.08	+0.5%	—	—
Will Benson	home runs	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.13	0.4%	0	HIT
TJ Friedl	total bases	OVER	0.5	-165	0.74	+0.3%	1	HIT
Nick Fortes	stolen bases	UNDER	0.5	-110	0.00	+0.0%	—	—