Cincinnati Reds

58% win

pred 5.3

Chase Burns

FINAL

Tampa Bay Rays

42% win

pred 4.4

Steven Matz

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	2	2	0	0	1	4	2	0	1	12	10
TB	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	6	8

2026-04-21 · 6:40 PM ET Tropicana Field

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Dane Myers	OF	18.0	$2.0k	9.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	16.0	$2.0k	8.0
Spencer Steer	OF	15.5	$2.7k	5.7
Elly De La Cruz	SS	32.5	$6.2k	5.2
Jonathan Aranda	1B	19.5	$4.2k	4.6
Matt McLain	2B	9.5	$3.2k	3.0
Sal Stewart	1B/2B	14.0	$4.8k	2.9
Junior Caminero	3B	7.5	$5.3k	1.4
Richie Palacios	2B	3.5	$3.5k	1.0
Cedric Mullins	OF	3.0	$3.3k	0.9
Hunter Feduccia	C	2.0	$2.3k	0.9
Yandy Díaz	1B/3B	2.5	$5.2k	0.5
Chandler Simpson	OF	2.0	$4.8k	0.4
Tyler Stephenson	C	0.5	$3.1k	0.2

Best Bets

Cincinnati Reds

ML ★ · +7.1% edge

-110 · $100 bet · $91 profit

Model: 58% vs Market: 51%

WIN

OVER 7.5

TOTAL ★★ · +2.2 off line

-110 · $200 bet · $182 profit

Model: 9.7 vs Line: 7.5

WIN

Cincinnati Reds + OVER 7.5

SGP ★★ · 2-leg same-game parlay

+264 · $200 bet · $528 profit

WIN

Predictions

Cincinnati Reds

ML · Model 58% vs Mkt 52%

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

RL · 0.6 off line

-180 · $56 per $100

LOSS

OVER 7.5

TOTAL · Proj 9.7 vs Line 7.5

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

Cincinnati Reds ML + Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 + OVER 7.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+467 · $467 per $100

LOSS

CIN 58% 42% TB

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	82.8%	17.2%
6.5	76.1%	23.9%
7.5	68.6%	31.4%
8.5	58.4%	41.6%
9.5	48.4%	51.6%
10.5	40.2%	59.8%
11.5	30.8%	69.2%
12.5	24.9%	75.1%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TB covers	CIN covers
TB -1.5	29.4%	45.2%
TB -2.5	20.8%	35.1%
TB -3.5	12.9%	27.5%

Team Totals

Line	TB	CIN
O 3.5	57.1%	68.5%
O 4.5	43.9%	57.1%
O 5.5	33.0%	42.5%
O 6.5	20.5%	31.4%

Odds

moneyline CIN 58% · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	CIN	Impl%	TB	Impl%
DraftKings	-110	50%	-110	50%
FanDuel	-116	51.5%	-102	48.5%
BetMGM	-115	51.1%	-105	48.9%
Caesars	-115	51.1%	-105	48.9%

runline Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · -180 · $56 per $100

CIN -1.5: CIN 5.3 − 1.5 = 3.8 vs TB 4.4 no bet

TB +1.5: TB 4.4 + 1.5 = 5.9 vs CIN 5.3 BET ✗

Book	CIN		TB
DraftKings	-1.5	+148	+1.5	-180
FanDuel	-1.5	+150	+1.5	-182
BetMGM	-1.5	+150	+1.5	-180
Caesars	-1.5	+150	+1.5	-178

total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 7.5 -113	U 7.5 -107
FanDuel	O 7.5 -115	U 7.5 -105
BetMGM	O 7.5 -110	U 7.5 -110
Caesars	O 7.5 -115	U 7.5 -105

Player Projections actual (projected)

Cincinnati Reds

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Sal Stewart	3B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.9	10.5	—
Elly De La Cruz	SS	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	1.2	9.9	—
Dane Myers	CF	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.1	8.9	—
Matt McLain	2B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.1	8.6	—
Eugenio Suárez	3B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.3	1.1	8.6	—
Spencer Steer	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	1.0	8.4	—
Tyler Stephenson	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
Rece Hinds	RF	0.7	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.2	1.2	7.2	—
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.8	6.8	—
Connor Phillips	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	4.7	—
Kyle Nicolas	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	4.4	—
Sam Moll	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6	4.0	—
Emilio Pagán	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.7	—
Graham Ashcraft	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1	2.8	—
Brock Burke	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	2.7	—
Pierce Johnson	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.6	1.7	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Chase Burns	Starter	5.6	6.0	5.2	2.3	2.7	52%	100%	16.7	—

Tampa Bay Rays

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Chandler Simpson	CF	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.9	9.9	—
Junior Caminero	3B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	8.7	—
Jonathan Aranda	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	1.2	8.0	—
Jake Fraley	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.1	8.0	—
Yandy Díaz	1B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.9	—
Richie Palacios	LF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.4	0.9	7.8	—
Cedric Mullins	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
Taylor Walls	SS	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.0	6.3	—
Hunter Feduccia	C	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.5	1.1	6.1	—
Mason Englert	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5	5.9	—
Griffin Jax	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	3.4	—
Bryan Baker	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3	3.4	—
Ian Seymour	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7	3.4	—
Cole Sulser	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2	3.2	—
Kevin Kelly	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	2.9	—
Yoendrys Gómez	P	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9	2.1	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Steven Matz	Starter	5.4	5.7	5.5	1.9	3.0	40%	100%	14.7	—

Box Score

Cincinnati Reds — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Dane Myers	3	1		1	1	3		$2,000 $2,200 $9	8.9	18.0	+9.1
Matt McLain	6	2	1		1		1	$3,200 $2,700 $12	8.6	9.5	+0.9
Elly De La Cruz	6	3		2	5		1	$6,200 $3,800 $19	9.9	32.5	+22.6
Sal Stewart	4	2			3	1		$4,800 $3,800 $20	10.5	14.0	+3.5
Eugenio Suárez	5						2	$4,300 $2,800 $16	8.6	-1.0	-9.6
Spencer Steer	3	1		1	1	2	1	$2,700 $2,600 $13	8.4	15.5	+7.1
Tyler Stephenson	4					1	3	$3,100 $2,500 $13	7.4	0.5	-6.9
Rece Hinds	3						3	$2,300 $2,100 $8	7.2	-1.5	-8.7
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	1		1	1	2		$2,000 $2,100 $7	6.8	16.0	+9.2
Will Benson	0					1		— — —	—	—
TOTALS	37	10	1	5	12	10	11		76.2	103.5

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Chase Burns	5.2	4	2	8	2	1	23	$8,800 $10,000 $48	16.7	24.6	+7.9
Sam Moll	1.1	2	0			0	6	— — —	4.0	1.8	-2.2
Pierce Johnson	1.0	1	0	2		0	4	— — —	1.7	5.7	+4.0
Kyle Nicolas	1.0	1	4	2	5	0	9	— — —	4.4	-5.4	-9.8

Tampa Bay Rays — Hitting

Player	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Chandler Simpson	4					1		$4,800 $2,900 $16	9.9	2.0	-7.9
Junior Caminero	4	2				1	1	$5,300 $3,200 $18	8.7	7.5	-1.2
Jonathan Aranda	3	1		1	3	2	1	$4,200 $3,300 $17	8.0	19.5	+11.5
Yandy Díaz	4	1					1	$5,200 $3,600 $18	7.9	2.5	-5.4
Jake Fraley	1						1	$3,000 $2,500 $10	8.0	-0.5	-8.5
Cedric Mullins	2	1						$3,300 $2,600 $12	7.7	3.0	-4.7
Richie Palacios	2					2	1	$3,500 $2,800 $13	7.8	3.5	-4.3
Hunter Feduccia	4	1					2	$2,300 $2,100 $7	6.1	2.0	-4.1
Taylor Walls	4						3	$2,500 $2,800 $11	6.3	-1.5	-7.8
Jonny DeLuca	4	1	1		2		2	— — —	—	8.0
Ryan Vilade	3	1	1					— — —	—	5.0
Ben Williamson	0				1	1		— — —	—	—
TOTALS	35	8	2	1	6	7	12		70.4	51.0

Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	ER	K	BB	HR	BF	Sal	Proj	FP	+/-
Steven Matz	3.0	4	4	4	4	3	17	$8,700 $9,300 $41	14.7	0.1	-14.6
Ian Seymour	1.0		0	1	1	0	4	— — —	3.4	3.7	+0.4
Griffin Jax	1.1	1	1	3	1	1	6	— — —	3.4	5.2	+1.8
Hunter Bigge	0.2	2	4	1	2	0	7	— — —	—	-6.9
Yoendrys Gómez	2.0	2	2	2	2	0	11	— — —	2.1	2.1	+0.0
Ben Williamson	1.0	1	1			1	4	— — —	—	-1.0